ECLAC Forecasts Two More Years of Economic Contraction for Cuba: “Only Haiti Would Be Worse”

MIAMI, United States — The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects a dire outlook for the Cuban economy, with a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction of -1.5% in 2025 and minimal growth of just 0.1% in 2026.

This is stated in the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025, released during the first week of August, in which Cuba ranks among the countries with the worst economic performance in the region.

According to the report, Cuba’s projected stagnation is surpassed only by Haiti, which is expected to see a GDP decline of -2.7% in 2025 and -0.7% in 2026. Meanwhile, the regional average points to growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, placing the island well below the Latin American and Caribbean average.

After analyzing the report, Cuban economist Pedro Monreal highlighted on X that “only Haiti would be worse” than Cuba in the region, and emphasized that ECLAC’s projections point to “two additional years of economic hardship” for the island.

In addition to its poor economic performance, ECLAC classifies Cuba as a “country with chronic inflation” and ranks it third among the nations with the highest inflation rates in 2024. Cuba is listed with a projected inflation of 238%, preceded only by Venezuela and Haiti. This category includes countries with “such poor data that they were excluded from the calculation of regional and subregional averages.”

In 2024, according to the same chart, ECLAC had already projected Cuban GDP growth at just 1.2%, well below the regional average of 2.2% for that year. The country thus remains on a path of economic stagnation, worsened by internal structural problems, high inflation, and an unfavorable international environment.

Cuba’s exclusion from the aggregated regional calculations is due not only to its poor projected economic performance but also to the lack of transparency in official statistics. Monreal has previously noted that the absence of reliable data makes it difficult to carry out comparative analyses and to design adequate policies.

ECLAC’s data confirms what various experts had already been warning: the country is heading into another two years of sustained crisis, with no clear signs of recovery.

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