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AI for Pricing
Abstract
In recent years, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) technology have triggered global industrial transformations, with applications permeating various fields such as finance, healthcare, education, and manufacturing. However, this rapid iteration is accompanied by irrational development, where enterprises blindly invest due to technology hype, often overlooking systematic value assessments. This paper develops a multi-dimensional evaluation model that integrates information theory's entropy reduction principle, economics' bounded rationality framework, and psychology's irrational decision theories to quantify AI product value. Key factors include positive dimensions (e.g., uncertainty elimination, efficiency gains, cost savings, decision quality improvement) and negative risks (e.g., error probability, impact, and correction costs). A non-linear formula captures factor couplings, and validation through 10 commercial cases demonstrates the model's effectiveness in distinguishing successful and failed products, supporting hypotheses on synergistic positive effects, non-linear negative impacts, and interactive regulations. Results reveal value generation logic, offering enterprises tools to avoid blind investments and promote rational AI industry development. Future directions include adaptive weights, dynamic mechanisms, and extensions to emerging AI technologies like generative models.
Abstract
Autonomous trading strategies have been a subject of research within the field of artificial intelligence (AI) for aconsiderable period. Various AI techniques have been explored to develop autonomous agents capable of trading financial assets. These approaches encompass traditional methods such as neural networks, fuzzy logic, and reinforcement learning, as well as more recent advancements, including deep neural networks and deep reinforcement learning. Many developers report success in creating strategies that exhibit strong performance during simulations using historical price data, a process commonly referred to as backtesting. However, when these strategies are deployed in real markets, their performance often deteriorates, particularly in terms of risk-adjusted returns. In this study, we propose an AI-based strategy inspired by a classical investment paradigm: Value Investing. Financial AI models are highly susceptible to lookahead bias and other forms of bias that can significantly inflate performance in backtesting compared to live trading conditions. To address this issue, we conducted a series of computational simulations while controlling for these biases, thereby reducing the risk of overfitting. Our results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms major Brazilian market benchmarks. Moreover, the strategy, named AlphaX, demonstrated superior performance relative to widely used technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI), with statistically significant results. Finally, we discuss several open challenges and highlight emerging technologies in qualitative analysis that may contribute to the development of a comprehensive AI-based Value Investing framework in the future
Supply Chain
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Abstract
The rise of autonomous, AI-driven agents in economic settings raises critical questions about their emergent strategic behavior. This paper investigates these dynamics in the cooperative context of a multi-echelon supply chain, a system famously prone to instabilities like the bullwhip effect. We conduct computational experiments with generative AI agents, powered by Large Language Models (LLMs), within a controlled supply chain simulation designed to isolate their behavioral tendencies. Our central finding is the "collaboration paradox": a novel, catastrophic failure mode where theoretically superior collaborative AI agents, designed with Vendor-Managed Inventory (VMI) principles, perform even worse than non-AI baselines. We demonstrate that this paradox arises from an operational flaw where agents hoard inventory, starving the system. We then show that resilience is only achieved through a synthesis of two distinct layers: high-level, AI-driven proactive policy-setting to establish robust operational targets, and a low-level, collaborative execution protocol with proactive downstream replenishment to maintain stability. Our final framework, which implements this synthesis, can autonomously generate, evaluate, and quantify a portfolio of viable strategic choices. The work provides a crucial insight into the emergent behaviors of collaborative AI agents and offers a blueprint for designing stable, effective AI-driven systems for business analytics.
Abstract
This paper proposes a Trans-XFed architecture that combines federated learning with explainable AI techniques for supply chain credit assessment. The proposed model aims to address several key challenges, including privacy, information silos, class imbalance, non-identically and independently distributed (Non-IID) data, and model interpretability in supply chain credit assessment. We introduce a performance-based client selection strategy (PBCS) to tackle class imbalance and Non-IID problems. This strategy achieves faster convergence by selecting clients with higher local F1 scores. The FedProx architecture, enhanced with homomorphic encryption, is used as the core model, and further incorporates a transformer encoder. The transformer encoder block provides insights into the learned features. Additionally, we employ the integrated gradient explainable AI technique to offer insights into decision-making. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Trans-XFed through experimental evaluations on real-world supply chain datasets. The obtained results show its ability to deliver accurate credit assessments compared to several baselines, while maintaining transparency and privacy.
Demand
Abstract
We study a two-dimensional generalization of the classical Bin Packing problem, denoted as 2D Demand Bin Packing. In this context, each bin is a horizontal timeline, and rectangular tasks (representing electric appliances or computational requirements) must be allocated into the minimum number of bins so that the sum of the heights of tasks at any point in time is at most a given constant capacity. We prove that simple variants of the problem are NP-hard to approximate within a factor better than $2$, namely when tasks have short height and when they are squares, and provide best-possible approximation algorithms for them; we also present a simple $3$-approximation for the general case. All our algorithms are based on a general framework that computes structured solutions for relatively large tasks, while including relatively small tasks on top via a generalization of the well-known First-Fit algorithm for Bin Packing.
Pricing
Abstract
Pricing of products and services, which has a significant impact on consumer demand, is one of the most important factors in maximizing business profits. Prescriptive price optimization is a prominent data-driven pricing methodology consisting of two phases: demand forecasting and price optimization. In the practice of prescriptive price optimization, the price of each item is typically set within a predetermined range defined by lower and upper bounds. Narrow price ranges can lead to missed opportunities, while wide price ranges run the risk of proposing unrealistic prices; therefore, determining profitable price bounds while maintaining the reliability of the suggested prices is a critical challenge that directly affects the effectiveness of prescriptive price optimization. We propose two methods for estimating price bounds in prescriptive price optimization so that future total revenue derived from the optimized prices will be maximized. Our first method for price bounds estimation uses the bootstrap procedure to estimate confidence intervals for optimal prices. Our second method uses the Nelder--Mead simplex method for black-box price bounds optimization that maximizes total revenue estimated through $K$-fold cross-validation. Experimental results with synthetic price--demand datasets demonstrate that our methods successfully narrowed down the price range while maintaining high revenues, particularly when the number of items was small or the demand noise level was low. Moreover, as more data accumulated, the comparative advantage of our methods further increased.
Abstract
The paper is an extended and modified version of the preprint S.Boyarchenko and S.Levendorski\u{i} ``Correct implied volatility shapes and reliable pricing in the rough Heston model". We combine a modification of the Adams method with the SINH-acceleration method S.Boyarchenko and S.Levendorskii (IJTAF 2019, v.22) of Fourier inversion (iFT) to price vanilla options under the rough Heston model. For moderate or long maturities and strikes near spot, thousands of prices are computed in several milliseconds (ms) in Matlab on a Mac with moderate specs, with relative errors $\lesssim 10^{-4}$. Even for options close to expiry and far-OTM, the pricing takes a few tens or hundreds of ms. We show that, for the calibrated parameters in El Euch and Rosenbaum (Math.Finance 2019, v.29), the model implied vol surface is much flatter and fits the market data poorly; thus the calibration in op.cit. is a case of ``ghost calibration'' (M.Boyarchenko and S.Levendorski\u{i}, Quant. Finance 2015, v.15): numerical error and model specification error offset each other, creating an apparently good fit that vanishes when a more accurate pricer is used. We explain how such errors arise in popular iFT implementations that use fixed numerical parameters, yielding spurious smiles/skews, and provide numerical evidence that SINH acceleration is faster and more accurate than competing methods. Robust error control is ensured by a general Conformal Bootstrap principle that we formulate; the principle is applicable to many Fourier-pricing methods. We outline how this principle and our method enable accurate calibration procedures that are hundreds of times faster than approaches commonly used in the industry. Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the authors only. No other representation should be attributed.

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  • Supply
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